CALGARY — Oil prices are hovering near six-month highs as markets weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, evolving U.S.-Iran talks and shifting forecasts from major financial analysts.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has traded around the low $70 range per barrel in recent sessions, while West Texas Intermediate has remained in the mid-$60s. Analysts say prices have been supported by uncertainty over potential supply disruptions even as global inventories remain relatively well supplied.
Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of S&P Global, said recent price gains reflect geopolitical anxiety more than supply shortages. He said markets are assigning a premium tied to concerns about tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly because of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil supplies.
“There’s a lot of anxiety in the oil price right now,” Yergin said at an economic conference in Washington, adding oil prices would likely be lower based solely on supply and demand fundamentals.
Oil markets have been watching diplomatic efforts closely after reports the United States and Iran are preparing for additional nuclear talks. The prospect of negotiations has tempered some fears of a military escalation, though traders remain cautious because any disruption in the region could quickly affect global supply flows.
At the same time, analysts say broader economic factors, including potential U.S. tariff changes and global growth concerns, continue to influence demand expectations and price swings.
Investment banks are also revising their outlooks. Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts for late 2026, citing lower than expected oil stock levels in developed economies. The bank now expects Brent crude to average about $64 per barrel this year and West Texas Intermediate to average about $60, while still forecasting a global supply surplus.
Goldman says its outlook assumes no major supply disruptions involving Iran and expects oil producers within OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year if inventories remain stable.
Despite recent gains, analysts note oil prices remain below levels seen a year ago and far from historic highs. Market watchers say prices are being driven by a combination of geopolitical risk, shifting production plans and uncertainty about global economic growth.
For now, traders continue to focus on diplomatic developments and supply signals, with any movement in Middle East tensions likely to quickly influence prices in the weeks ahead.
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