By Michael Vadon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=54216023
NEW YORK — Trade tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda are expected to ease in 2026, with average U.S. import duties settling around 15 per cent, according to the head of Bank of America.
Chief executive officer Brian Moynihan said the bank’s outlook points to de escalation rather than further escalation after tariffs rattled the U.S. economy in 2025.
In an interview recorded earlier this month and aired Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation, Moynihan said Bank of America expects an average tariff rate of about 15 per cent, with higher duties applied to countries unwilling to commit to U.S. purchases or reduce non tariff barriers.
“To go from a 10 per cent across the board to 15 per cent for the broad base of countries is not a huge impact,” Moynihan said, adding the bank’s economists see that shift as a sign tensions are beginning to ease.
Trump announced a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all exporters to the United States in April, branding the move “Liberation Day.” Additional measures unveiled in July were projected to push the average rate to about 15.2 per cent for major trading partners if fully implemented. Bloomberg Economics has estimated the average U.S. tariff rate climbed to about 14 per cent from roughly 2 per cent after Trump returned to the White House.
Moynihan said China remains a separate issue, as do North American trading partners ahead of a scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement next year. Still, he said the broader global picture suggests policymakers are nearing an endpoint on tariffs.
He added higher duties and uncertainty over trade policy weighed on small businesses earlier in the year, though some pressure eased as rates stabilized. For many small firms, Moynihan said concerns about labour availability now outweigh tariff worries, as immigration policies under the Trump administration continue to take shape
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