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OTTAWA — The U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Washington’s push to assert control over Venezuelan oil is reverberating in Alberta, where producers and governments are watching for any sign a revived supply of heavy crude could squeeze Canadian barrels in North American refineries.
Analysts have long said Venezuela’s thick crude is closest to Alberta oilsands bitumen, and renewed Venezuelan output could widen the discount Canadian heavy oil sells for compared with U.S. benchmark prices. TD Economics has warned the price differential could increase if sanctions are eased and more Venezuelan crude starts flowing, potentially eroding some of the gains Canadian producers have seen since the Trans Mountain expansion opened more access to overseas buyers.
In Paris this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canadian oil will remain competitive even if Venezuelan output rises, arguing Canada offers stability for investors and customers. “Canadian oil will be competitive because it is low risk … (and) low cost,” Carney said, pointing to efforts to cut emissions intensity, including the Pathways Alliance carbon capture proposal.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has framed the Venezuelan turmoil as another warning against relying too heavily on the United States as Canada’s dominant customer, writing that “every barrel the United States sources from Venezuela could mean one less barrel these refineries would buy from Canada,” and arguing Canada “need(s) new markets to sell to, and … need(s) them quickly.”
That export diversification theme is one of the few points of broad agreement in Ottawa right now. Carney, announcing a trip to China next week, said Canada is “forging new partnerships around the world” to build an economy “stronger and more resilient to global shock,” as the government looks to double non-U.S. exports within a decade.
China is central to the debate over what those new markets might look like, especially for energy. In a September byline published by China’s consul general in Calgary, Zhao Liying described China as “an important partner” in Canada’s effort to diversify trade, adding that China’s “stable, super-large market will bring boundless opportunities for Canada’s oil, gas, and other energy industries.”
Beijing has also delivered a sharp public critique of Washington’s actions in Venezuela while signalling it wants stability and predictable rules. At a regular briefing Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the U.S. seizure of Maduro and his wife was “in clear violation of international law,” and called on the United States “to release President Maduro and his wife at once.” She also condemned reported U.S. pressure on Caracas to sever ties with Beijing, saying Venezuela is a sovereign state and that “the lawful rights and interests of China and other countries in Venezuela must be protected.”
At the same time, Chinese consular messaging has stressed a hopeful, forward-looking tone about Canada and the possibility of a steadier relationship. In another byline posted by the Calgary consulate in December, Zhao wrote that after a period of “twists and turns,” China-Canada ties had “returned to the right track,” and pointed to opportunities to build a “stable and resilient partnership.”
Carney’s upcoming trip to China, scheduled for Jan. 13 to 17, is being billed by his office as a bid to deepen engagement on trade, energy, agriculture and international security. It will be the first visit to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017, and comes as Ottawa seeks new customers and steadier relationships in a turbulent global oil and trade landscape.
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