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OTTAWA — Alberta’s population is projected to surge in the coming decades and could overtake British Columbia’s as Canada’s third most populous province, according to new population projections released by Statistics Canada.
The federal agency says Alberta could surpass B.C. as early as the late 2030s, with the shift occurring in nearly all projection scenarios by 2050. Under a medium growth scenario, Alberta’s population would reach about seven million by mid century, compared with roughly 6.6 million in British Columbia.
Statistics Canada demographer Jonathan Chagnon said Alberta’s younger population profile is a key driver of the trend.
“Alberta has a higher fertility rate than B.C.,” Chagnon said, adding B.C.’s older population means it will experience more deaths relative to births. “It means that Alberta will experience a higher number of births and B.C. at the opposite will experience a higher number of deaths.”
The projections are based on Canada’s population as of July 1, 2025, and incorporate recent trends such as changes to immigration and temporary resident policies, along with long term demographic patterns. Statistics Canada cautioned the projections are not predictions, but scenarios intended to help governments and planners anticipate future needs.
In most scenarios, Alberta is also projected to be among the fastest growing provinces in the country, alongside Saskatchewan and Manitoba. By contrast, the demographic weight of provinces such as Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to decline over the same period.
Nationally, Statistics Canada says Canada’s population could grow from about 41.7 million in 2025 to between 44 million and nearly 76 million by 2075, depending on growth assumptions. Under the medium growth scenario, the population would reach about 57.4 million.
Ontario and Quebec are projected to remain Canada’s two most populous provinces over the next 25 years, but the agency says Alberta’s continued growth signals a long term shift in the country’s demographic balance.
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