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FORT MCMURRAY — Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a war many expected to be short has hardened into a grinding conflict of attrition marked by staggering human loss, deep economic strain and no clear path to peace.
When Russian forces crossed the border on Feb. 24, 2022, military analysts and political leaders widely predicted a rapid campaign, with some forecasting Kyiv could fall within days. Instead, the war has stretched into a fifth year, with front lines largely static and both sides facing mounting casualties and growing fatigue.
Estimates vary, but multiple sources suggest hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides have been killed or wounded. Civilians have also paid a steep price, with cities damaged or destroyed, millions displaced and families scattered across continents.
The human impact is also being felt far from the battlefield, including in northern Alberta, where Fort McMurray has become home to hundreds of Ukrainian newcomers who fled the war. Community groups say many arrived after leaving behind relatives, homes and careers, often uncertain when or if they will return.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo MLA Tany Yao said the region’s diversity has helped newcomers find support as they rebuild their lives.
“Our community is one of the most diverse in the province if not country,” Yao said. “Our multicultural groups contribute greatly to our economy and region.”
Yao said the conflict continues to weigh heavily on Ukrainian residents and families connected to the war.
“While the war initiated by Russia is having a terrible toll on Ukrainians at home and abroad, we are thankful for those displaced who have chosen to settle in Fort McMurray,” he said, adding he is praying for a peaceful resolution for everyone affected.
For many members of the Ukrainian diaspora, anniversaries bring mixed emotions, gratitude for safety but grief for loved ones still living through air strikes, power outages and continued fighting.
Aid organizations say humanitarian needs remain high despite years of international support. Food, medical supplies, power equipment and financial assistance continue to be in demand as Ukraine struggles to maintain essential services while sustaining its war effort.
Governments across Europe and North America, including Canada, have committed billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid since the invasion began. But officials and analysts increasingly acknowledge the war has shifted into a long-term struggle, with neither side capable of delivering a decisive breakthrough.
Russian forces continue to control significant portions of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine has struggled with manpower shortages and the ongoing challenge of replacing troops lost in years of heavy fighting. Analysts say advanced drone technology and fortified defensive lines have contributed to a stalemate, reinforcing a pattern of slow territorial changes and high casualties.
Economic costs are also mounting. Ukraine’s economy has been severely damaged, requiring international loans and aid packages to sustain government operations and reconstruction planning. Russia, meanwhile, has redirected large portions of its economy toward military production, raising questions about long-term sustainability.
Experts say the conflict has reshaped global energy markets, defence spending and geopolitical alliances, while leaving uncertainty about how or when the war might end.
As the anniversary arrives, many Ukrainians and their supporters say the passage of time has not dulled the sense of loss or the desire for peace. For families separated by war, the conflict remains intensely personal, measured not in military advances but in phone calls, memories and the hope of reunion.
With diplomacy stalled and battlefield conditions largely unchanged, observers warn the war could continue for years, leaving Ukrainians at home and abroad bracing for a long and uncertain future.
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