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CALGARY — Rising electricity demand and expanding natural gas production are expected to play a central role in shaping Canada’s energy future, according to a new outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator.
The report, Canada’s Energy Future 2026, outlines four long-term scenarios projecting how energy supply and demand could evolve through 2050, including pathways based on current policies, higher and lower production levels, and a net-zero emissions scenario.
The regulator says electricity use is set to increase across all scenarios as homes, industries and emerging technologies rely more heavily on the grid. Power generation is projected to grow by at least 30 per cent and potentially more than double current levels by mid-century, with most new supply coming from low- or non-emitting sources.
Interprovincial electricity trade is also expected to expand, with flows more than doubling in each scenario as provinces work to balance supply and demand.
Natural gas production is forecast to rise over the next 25 years, reaching between 21 and 32 billion cubic feet per day by 2050, up from about 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. The extent of that growth will depend largely on the development of liquefied natural gas export capacity and access to markets beyond the United States.
By 2050, the report suggests about one-quarter of Canadian natural gas production could be tied to LNG exports.
Crude oil production presents a more uncertain outlook, with projections ranging from a 12 per cent decline to an 18 per cent increase depending on global prices and market conditions. In most scenarios, Canada continues to rely heavily on the United States as its primary export market for oil under existing pipeline infrastructure.
The report also suggests Ontario and Quebec are likely to remain dependent on oil and natural gas sourced from or transported through the United States, although that reliance could ease under a net-zero scenario with greater use of domestic electricity and hydrogen.
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decline across all scenarios, driven in part by a cleaner electricity grid and reductions across multiple sectors. However, emissions are expected to level off around 2035 under current policies, with deeper reductions requiring broader adoption of low-carbon technologies.
Darren Christie, chief economist with the Canada Energy Regulator, said the outlook highlights the uncertainty surrounding Canada’s energy future.
“Electricity is poised to play a much larger role, natural gas outcomes are shaped by LNG, and crude oil trade remains closely tied to the U.S. if pipeline usage is much like today’s,” Christie said.
The regulator says the scenarios are not predictions or policy recommendations, but are designed to illustrate how different assumptions could shape Canada’s energy system in the decades ahead.
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