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OTTAWA — With Environment Canada predicting a slower, wetter spring as the country inches toward summer, meteorologists with The Weather Network are echoing expectations of unusual conditions tied to a developing El Niño pattern.
Forecasters say ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific are warming, with an El Niño event very likely to form by mid-summer following a rapid transition from La Niña conditions.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is projecting an 80 per cent or greater chance of El Niño developing later this summer and persisting into the fall.
Early indicators suggest the event could grow into a strong system, sometimes referred to informally as a “Super El Niño,” though experts caution confidence in its strength remains limited.
“El Niño and La Niña have a long history of defying expectations during spring,” said senior meteorologist Doug Gillham, noting a period known as the spring predictability barrier can complicate forecasts.
El Niño typically alters global weather patterns by shifting the jet stream, with its strongest effects seen in winter. During summer, impacts are often more subtle, though parts of North America can experience shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns.
Meteorologists say the timing and strength of the developing system will determine how significantly Canadians feel its effects in the months ahead.
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