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WASHINGTON — The United States and Iran exchanged fresh threats over the weekend as the Middle East war entered its fourth week, adding new uncertainty to already volatile global oil markets.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran he would target Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, while Iran responded it would strike American energy, water and information infrastructure across the region.
The escalating rhetoric has rattled markets, where traders are closely watching the risk of further disruptions to oil flows through the strategic waterway, which carries roughly one-fifth of global supply.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest outlook that “the Brent crude oil spot price has risen sharply following the onset of military action in the Middle East,” with prices reaching $94 per barrel earlier this month.
The agency forecasts crude will remain above $95 per barrel in the near term before easing later in 2026, though it cautions the outlook depends heavily on how long the conflict disrupts production and shipping.
Analysts say the path forward remains uncertain. Investment site The Motley Fool notes oil “could stay at current levels, rise further, or fall” as geopolitical tensions evolve.
With no clear exit strategy emerging from the conflict, the war continues to inject risk into global energy markets, leaving oil prices highly volatile and sensitive to each new development.
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