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EDMONTON — A new Ipsos poll suggests Alberta separatists face a steep challenge in convincing voters to support a future referendum on leaving Canada.
The survey, conducted for Global News between May 28 and June 1, found 72 per cent of Albertans would vote to keep the province in Canada if asked whether Alberta should remain a province or begin the constitutional process required to hold a binding separation referendum.
Nineteen per cent said they would support beginning the process toward a future separation vote, while 10 per cent were undecided, would not vote or declined to answer.
Support for a future separation referendum was lowest in Calgary at 14 per cent, compared with 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of Alberta.
The poll also asked Albertans how they would vote if a binding referendum on separation were held today.
Eighteen per cent said they would vote for Alberta to leave Canada, while 72 per cent said they would vote to remain in Canada. Nine per cent were undecided or would not vote.
Support for separation was strongest outside Alberta’s two largest cities. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents in the rest of the province said they would vote to separate, compared with 16 per cent in Edmonton and 12 per cent in Calgary.
The survey found support for separation has declined significantly since January.
An Ipsos poll conducted earlier this year found 28 per cent of Albertans supported Alberta beginning the process of separation from Canada. The latest survey places support at 18 per cent, a drop of 10 percentage points.
The poll also suggests voters opposed to separation hold more firmly entrenched views than those supporting it.
Among respondents who would vote to remain in Canada, 90 per cent described their position as definite. Among those who would vote to separate, 70 per cent said their position was definite, while the remainder described their support as probable or leaning toward separation.
Support for remaining in Canada was strongest among Alberta NDP supporters, with 93 per cent saying they would vote to stay and four per cent supporting separation.
Among United Conservative Party supporters, opinion was more divided. Half said they would vote to remain in Canada, while 41 per cent said they would vote for separation.
The survey also examined motivations among Albertans who support separation.
Sixty-one per cent of those respondents said they believe Alberta’s future would be better outside Canada, while 39 per cent cited historical treatment of Alberta within Confederation as their primary reason.
The findings suggest a shift from January, when concerns about historical grievances were a more common motivation among separation supporters.
Nationally, the survey found little support for provincial separation outside Quebec.
Eleven per cent of Canadians outside Alberta said they would support their own province separating from Canada if a referendum were held today. Support was highest in Quebec at 30 per cent.
The poll also found 80 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta want Alberta to remain part of Canada, while seven per cent support Alberta separating.
Canadians outside Alberta were also more likely to believe the rest of the country should have a say in any future Alberta separation effort. Fifty-eight per cent said all Canadians should have input on the issue, while 28 per cent said it should be left solely to Albertans.
Albertans were more divided on that question, with 47 per cent saying Alberta alone should decide and 42 per cent saying all Canadians should have a say.
The poll surveyed 1,500 Canadians online, including 600 Albertans. Ipsos says the Alberta portion of the survey has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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