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CALGARY — A new analysis commissioned by a group opposing Alberta separation suggests an independent Alberta could face a first-year deficit of more than $27 billion.
Vote to Stay, an organization advocating for Alberta to remain in Canada, released the analysis Tuesday. The report was prepared by Lennie Kaplan, a former official with Alberta Treasury Board and Finance.
The analysis estimates an independent Alberta could begin with a cash deficit of approximately $27.2 billion in its first year.
According to the report, Alberta could inherit roughly $174 billion in federal debt and face more than $15 billion annually in debt-servicing costs when combined with existing provincial debt obligations.
The analysis also argues the projected deficit does not account for several policies promoted by some separation advocates, including the elimination of personal income taxes, reductions in corporate taxes and other fiscal commitments.
“Albertans deserve straight answers before they cast a ballot on something this consequential,” said Monte Solberg, founder of Vote to Stay and a former federal cabinet minister.
“This analysis raises serious questions about how an independent Alberta would pay its bills, fund public services, and manage billions of dollars in new debt obligations.”
The report concludes proponents of Alberta independence have not yet provided detailed plans explaining how government services, pensions, transition costs and debt obligations would be financed without spending cuts, tax increases or additional borrowing.
It also raises concerns about borrowing costs for a newly independent Alberta and notes several potential transition expenses remain undefined.
“Albertans are proud, ambitious people, and we should always aim high,” Solberg said. “But optimism alone is not a fiscal plan.”
The analysis comes as debate over Alberta’s future within Canada continues ahead of a proposed provincial referendum on separation-related questions later this year.
Vote to Stay says it supports Alberta remaining within Canada and is encouraging Albertans to examine the potential economic implications of separation.
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