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VIENNA — OPEC is forecasting global oil demand growth will surge to 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, more than 10 times the increase expected this year and enough to push average world consumption to 108.3 million barrels per day.
The forecast is contained in OPEC’s October Monthly Oil Market Report, released Oct. 13. The organization now expects demand to grow by just 200,000 barrels per day in 2026, reaching an average of 105.7 million barrels per day, before accelerating sharply next year. OPEC slightly lowered its 2026 growth forecast while revising its outlook for 2027 higher.
Most of the increase is expected outside developed economies. OPEC forecasts oil demand in non-OECD countries will grow by about two million barrels per day next year, while OECD demand is expected to increase by about 500,000 barrels per day.
The organization says the rebound assumes demand softens as expected this year before strengthening in 2027. It also expects oil demand to be boosted by the need to rebuild inventories.
Preliminary August data showed OECD commercial oil inventories at 2.8 billion barrels, about 177 million barrels below the 2015-to-2019 average. Product inventories were about 80 million barrels below that benchmark.
Transportation fuels are expected to be major contributors to the rebound. OPEC says gasoline will lead demand growth, followed by jet fuel and kerosene, with diesel demand forecast to increase by about 420,000 barrels per day. Demand for petrochemical feedstocks is also expected to rise.
The forecast could also have implications for Canadian producers.
OPEC expects liquids production from countries outside its Declaration of Cooperation group to grow by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2027, far below the expected increase in global demand.
Canada is projected to be one of the main sources of that additional supply. OPEC forecasts Canadian liquids production will increase by about 130,000 barrels per day next year, behind Qatar at about 200,000 barrels per day and ahead of Brazil and Argentina.
Overall production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation is forecast to average 55.5 million barrels per day in 2027.
OPEC also expects greater demand for crude produced by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, which includes OPEC members and allied producers.
Demand for that crude is forecast to rise from 42.1 million barrels per day this year to 43.9 million barrels per day in 2027, an increase of about 1.8 million barrels per day.
The forecast represents a sharp change from 2026, when OPEC expects almost no growth in overall world oil consumption, to a year in which recovering demand and inventory rebuilding could require substantially more crude from both OPEC-aligned producers and countries such as Canada.
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