Environment Canada seasonal forecast map
EDMONTON — Environment Canada is predicting a warmer-than-normal end to the year across Alberta, with much of the province also leaning toward drier-than-normal conditions.
The federal agency’s seasonal outlook for October through December places virtually all of Alberta in the above-normal temperature category, with probabilities generally strongest across central and northern parts of the province.
The forecast does not mean every day will be warmer than usual. Seasonal outlooks compare the average temperature over the three-month period with historical conditions from 1991 to 2020.
Environment Canada is also forecasting below-normal precipitation across much of Alberta during the same period.
That means total rain and snowfall over October, November and December has a greater chance of falling in the driest third of historical conditions.
Confidence in the precipitation outlook is lower than for temperature.
A separate Environment Canada map showing the historical accuracy of seasonal precipitation forecasts indicates much of Alberta falls within areas where predictions have not performed significantly better than chance, although forecast skill is higher in some parts of the province.
Northeastern Alberta, including the Fort McMurray region, is also within the area where above-normal temperatures are favoured through the end of December.
The precipitation outlook places much of northeastern Alberta near or within the below-normal category, though the lower historical forecast skill means that part of the outlook should be treated with more caution.
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