CALGARY — Suncor Energy has released its 2026 corporate guidance with plans to boost production, maintain strong refinery performance and ramp up share buybacks to a projected $3.3 billion next year.
The company said the outlook builds on what it describes as two consecutive record-breaking years, reinforcing a strategy that prioritizes operational reliability and the return of all excess funds to shareholders. Monthly repurchases have already increased 10 percent to $275 million.
President and CEO Rich Kruger said the new guidance reflects consistent execution across both the upstream and downstream sides of the business. He said Suncor will continue using the same disciplined model it applied in 2025, which focused on predictable operations, cash flow resilience and controlled capital spending.
Annual upstream production in 2026 is forecast between 840,000 and 870,000 barrels per day. The range represents growth of more than 100,000 barrels per day from 2023 and surpasses targets set at the company’s 2024 investor day. Bitumen production is projected between 915,000 and 955,000 barrels per day, with upgraded synthetic crude and diesel contributing as much as 540,000 barrels per day. Non-upgraded bitumen production is expected to reach up to 270,000 barrels per day.
Suncor CEO Rich Kruger, Facebook posting
Suncor’s oil sands operations, which include Firebag, MacKay River and Base Plant, are expected to deliver up to 495,000 barrels per day. Fort Hills is forecast at up to 185,000 barrels per day, while Syncrude’s working interest share is projected to reach as much as 210,000 barrels per day.
The outlook reflects major planned work at the Firebag in situ facility and scheduled maintenance at Base Plant, Syncrude and Fort Hills. Refining utilization is expected to average between 99 and 102 percent, supported by planned turnarounds at the company’s refineries in Edmonton, Montreal, Sarnia and Commerce City. Suncor expects refined product sales between 600,000 and 620,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Total capital expenditures are budgeted between $5.6 billion and $5.8 billion. The company says this meets the target set at its 2024 investor day. About 45 percent of spending is considered economic investment, including in situ well pads, the Mildred Lake East project, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development and continued work on optimizing the Petro Canada retail network.
Suncor also outlined expected operating costs for its major oil sands assets. Oil sands operations cash operating costs are projected between $26 and $29 per barrel, while Fort Hills is forecast at $33 to $36 per barrel and Syncrude at $34 to $37 per barrel. The guidance incorporates assumptions about natural gas prices, Alberta power pool pricing and refinery margins.
Kruger said Suncor will provide another update in early January, which will include full 2025 operational results and an assessment of performance against its three year plan unveiled in 2024. He said the company remains committed to high performance standards and delivering steady long term value for shareholders.
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