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MONTREAL — A new agreement to export Canadian liquefied natural gas to Germany from British Columbia highlights clear European demand for LNG projects such as the one proposed for Quebec’s North Shore, according to the Montreal Economic Institute.
The institute says a tanker leaving Quebec’s North Shore could reach Germany about 18 days sooner than one departing from British Columbia, reducing transportation costs and potentially improving competitiveness in the European market.
“Stability and reliability are valuable when it comes to energy supply, and that is what Germany is reminding us of today,” said Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI.
He said European buyers would likely show interest in LNG export terminals on Canada’s East Coast because of the shorter shipping distance.
The comments follow the announcement of a supply agreement involving Germany’s SEFE, which plans to purchase one million metric tonnes of liquefied natural gas annually from the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project near Prince Rupert, B.C.
According to Germany’s Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, deliveries are expected to begin in the early 2030s and continue for 20 years.
The route from Prince Rupert to the German port of Wilhelmshaven covers about 9,387 nautical miles. The MEI estimates an LNG carrier travelling at an average speed of 15 knots, without delays at the Panama Canal, would require slightly more than 26 days to complete the one-way journey.
The same vessel departing from Baie-Comeau, where Marinvest Energy has proposed a liquefaction facility, would take just under eight days to reach Wilhelmshaven, according to the institute.
In an analysis published earlier this year, the MEI argued Quebec holds a competitive advantage in LNG exports to Europe because of its geographic proximity. The institute said exporters in Qatar and the U.S. Gulf Coast face shipping distances between 38 and 117 per cent longer to major European LNG terminals.
“The Germans are reminding us today that, contrary to what BAPE officials believed in 2021, there is indeed a demand for Canadian natural gas exports from Quebec,” Giguère said.
In 2021, Quebec’s Bureau d’audiences publiques sur l’environnement concluded during its review of a proposed LNG project in the Saguenay region that demand for Canadian natural gas exports to Europe appeared limited and existing or planned facilities elsewhere would likely be sufficient.
The MEI also pointed to growing European LNG imports. Data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers shows imports between 2024 and 2025 rose by 25 per cent in France, 64 per cent in Germany and 85 per cent in Belgium.
The institute added the International Energy Agency projects global natural gas demand could rise by 30 per cent by 2050 under its business-as-usual scenario.
An Ipsos poll conducted for the MEI last December found 67 per cent of Quebecers supported the construction of a natural gas liquefaction terminal, while 15 per cent opposed the idea.
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