By jasonwoodhead23 - SYNCRUDE 2012, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=71411574
CALGARY – Planned maintenance in Alberta’s oil sands could reduce Canadian crude production by about 300,000 barrels per day in September, tightening supplies for U.S. refineries.
The estimate comes from Rystad Energy, an independent energy research and intelligence company founded in Oslo, Norway. The company gathers detailed industry data and provides research, analysis, advisory services and energy education.
Rystad estimates the scheduled shutdowns will affect all major oil sands operators as American refiners continue operating at high rates to offset disrupted global fuel supplies.
The maintenance is routine and was scheduled well in advance, but inventories available to cover the temporary decline are unusually low.
Crude storage at the Hardisty hub, a major blending and shipping point for Alberta oil moving south, is near its lowest level in more than a year and the second-lowest recorded since tracking began in 2017.
Canada supplies the United States with more than four million barrels of crude per day. Refineries in the American Midwest receive about 70 per cent of their supply from Canada, with many designed to process the heavy crude produced by Alberta’s oil sands.
Replacement heavy crude remains limited. Rising shipments from Venezuela have not increased quickly enough to fully offset a reduction in Canadian supply.
Pipeline operators have stopped rationing capacity ahead of the maintenance period, indicating they expect lower shipping demand in September.
The supply squeeze could push already elevated refining margins higher, particularly for diesel, and add further pressure to fuel prices and inflation.
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