By Tony Webster - Suncor Energy - Crude Oil Storage Tank Farm, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=160720872Suncor Energy crude oil storage tank farm near Guernsey, Wyoming.
NEW YORK — Global energy demand could rise by more than 60 per cent by 2060 as developing economies expand electricity access, industrialize and raise living standards, according to a new S&P Global report.
The increase would be comparable to adding another China to global energy consumption, according to a recent Marketplace report.
S&P Global expects much of the growth to come from emerging economies including India, Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia.
Renewable energy is expected to capture a significant share of the increase, but the report says oil, natural gas and, in some markets, coal will continue playing major roles as countries try to meet rapidly rising demand.
Developing countries have already been expanding renewable generation quickly, helped in part by falling technology costs and inexpensive Chinese-made equipment.
By the end of 2025, 63 per cent of emerging markets in Africa, Asia and Latin America were generating a larger share of their electricity from solar than the United States.
But S&P Global says rising demand will require a broader mix of energy sources rather than an immediate transition away from fossil fuels.
The outlook also highlights tensions between developed and developing economies over climate policy.
Emerging economies have resisted pressure to bypass fossil-fuel development entirely, arguing they need reliable and affordable energy to support economic growth. Wealthier countries have pledged financial support for lower-income nations transitioning to cleaner energy, although the history of international climate financing has included unmet commitments.
The report suggests the central challenge over the coming decades will be meeting rapidly growing energy needs while expanding lower-emission sources and maintaining reliable supplies.
For developing countries, the increase in energy consumption is closely tied to rising incomes, industrial development and improved access to electricity.
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