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CALGARY — Canadian energy executives and institutional investors are heading into 2027 with increasingly positive outlooks, according to a new ATB Cormark Capital Markets Energy Sector Survey pointing to higher spending, production and activity across the sector.
The fall 2026 survey found 84 per cent of exploration and production executives and 81 per cent of energy services executives said their outlook had improved over the previous three months.
Looking ahead, 88 per cent of exploration and production respondents expect their outlook to improve over the next six months, while 81 per cent of energy services executives expect activity levels to increase.
Investor sentiment was also positive, with 78 per cent of institutional investors saying Canadian energy equities are undervalued.
About 63 per cent expect Canadian energy stocks to outperform over the next year, while 76 per cent said they had become more bullish on the sector during the previous six months.
The survey suggests the industry is preparing for moderate growth in 2027 even as producers generally build capital budgets around crude prices between US$65 and US$75 per barrel.
About 90 per cent of energy services executives expect activity to increase next year, while 56 per cent of exploration and production companies expect higher exploration and development spending.
Nearly all exploration and production respondents, 96 per cent, expect to increase production over the next year.
ATB Cormark estimates Canadian energy activity and exploration and development spending could increase by roughly five to 10 per cent in 2027.
Oil producers surveyed expect production growth of about 10 per cent, while natural gas producers expect growth of roughly five per cent.
Energy services companies are also anticipating stronger pricing and margins.
For the first time since the spring of 2022, more services companies reported excess demand than excess capacity.
The survey also found the industry remains concerned about federal energy policy, although respondents were generally more optimistic about Ottawa’s approach to expanding the sector.
Federal energy policies remained the highest-ranked risk identified by respondents.
However, a strong majority expect positive final investment decisions on several major energy infrastructure projects, including Pacific Link and Pathways, Prairie Connector and Ksi Lisims.
ATB Cormark says those projects could collectively add at least 1.6 million barrels per day of crude takeaway capacity and 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of LNG export capacity.
LNG Canada Phase 2 could add another 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of export capacity.
Respondents were less optimistic about the Northern Shield Energy Corridor, with the survey indicating skepticism the project will be built.
The industry was also cautious about major decarbonization spending, with respondents on balance viewing investments such as Pathways as harmful to the sector’s long-term competitiveness.
Developments in the Middle East are also influencing expectations for Canadian energy.
Among respondents who expressed an opinion, 53 per cent believe Middle Eastern crude exports will remain below prewar levels through 2027.
About 72 per cent expect global crude supply and demand conditions to remain tighter over the long term than they anticipated before the war.
The survey also found 79 per cent of institutional investors said restrictions on Middle Eastern crude and LNG exports have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy companies.
ATB Cormark surveyed executives from 27 exploration and production companies, 22 energy services companies and 42 institutional investors between Sept. 14 and Sept. 28.
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